Mark Zuckerberg wants to place a bet on prediction markets. And when the person making that bet controls a platform with billions of users, the existing players have reason to pay attention.

Meta is building a standalone prediction markets app internally dubbed “Arena,” with Zuckerberg personally directing the project. The app would let users forecast outcomes across politics, sports, and entertainment, operating independently from Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

Points first, real money maybe later

Arena will launch with a video-game-style points system rather than real-money wagering. Meta hasn’t ruled out adding real-money features down the road.

Meta tried something similar in 2020 with a crowdsourced prediction app called Forecast. Arena appears to be Zuckerberg’s second swing at the concept, this time with considerably more executive attention behind it.

Prediction markets are having a moment. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have reported significant trading volumes, particularly around political events and entertainment outcomes. Polymarket, built on crypto rails, has become the go-to venue for anyone wanting to put money behind their convictions about elections, policy decisions, or cultural milestones. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, has carved out its own niche in the regulated space.

Why Wall Street flinched

The market’s reaction to the news was swift and telling. Shares of DraftKings, Robinhood, and Flutter all declined following the announcement.

Zuckerberg has described the project as part of a broader strategy to test experimental products and explore growth opportunities beyond traditional social media.

Robinhood’s stock decline is arguably the most interesting signal. The retail trading platform has been expanding into prediction markets and sports betting as part of its own diversification strategy.

What this means for crypto prediction markets

The CFTC has been cautiously expanding the boundaries of what prediction markets can legally offer, with Kalshi’s political event contracts serving as a recent test case.

No public launch date has been set for Arena. For now, it exists as an internal project with executive-level backing.